Chrystia Freeland’s abrupt departure from cabinet has answered the question that many have been asking.
What’s Going On?
The usual approach to a change of guard at the top was just demonstrated by the Democrats in the US. The leader-to-be takes on a higher and higher profile to give that person a chance to create an image. In order to keep up the momentum (and just in case the plan falls through), the departing leader has to stay firmly in the race until the crucial moment when the time is right.
This sort of political ploy requires a great deal of cooperation and trust between mentor and mentee, because the heir apparent has to stay in the shadows far longer than seems wise.
And in Canada?
For those of us who were still wondering, Freeland’s resignation demonstrated that she and Trudeau had no such agreement. The recent cabinet shuffle was a circling of the remaining wagons, not a renewed plan for the running of the nation, and there is no room in Trudeau’s cabinet for competition.
Two Choices
The Liberals could let Trudeau stay and take the fall, then pick a new leader who can start afresh in four years with an image honed as Leader of the Opposition. But they can’t hold on with this plan much longer because Trudeau is digging the hole deeper and deeper, and external pressures, especially on our southern border, are pressing. The way Trudeau is heading, our next Opposition Leader could well be Jagmeet Singh.
Or they could elect a new leader now and hold the election sooner. But this would cause much more upset in the party. They will probably take the easy way out, because somewhere in Trudeau’s dream world is a scenario where a large metaphoric tree of some sort falls on Pierre Poilievre and Justin swoops in and saves the day.
What’s Freeland Doing?
It’s hard not to see her demotion from Finance Minister as a power move before the next leadership convention. She has allowed herself to be overshadowed and has worked loyally behind the scenes to uphold the party, and Trudeau has not come through on his share of the deal, if there ever was one.
Now she is on the attack. She has called his vote-buying GST holiday a “costly political gimmick, which we can ill afford.” Another good sound bite: “Canadians know when we are focused on ourselves.”
What Comes Next
The final comment in her letter assumes that the Liberals are going to lose the next election, and she is presenting herself as concerned about the long term.
The Bottom Line
Chrystia Freeland has ably demonstrated herself to be an intelligent, thoughtful administrator with a strong personality and a refreshing lack of ego. I can see her allowing the boys to strut and posture their way into the disgust of the public, then presenting herself as an accomplished and proficient alternative in a future election.
Canada could use a little of that.