Donald Trump is probably going to lose the election.
“Ah,” you say. “But the polls say it’s a neck-and-neck race.”
Not precisely true. Most of the information we have doesn’t come from the polling companies. It’s filtered through people who slant it the way that suits them. The polls give Harris the edge, but the news media want it tight because it makes better news. The Democrats don’t want to make the mistake of overconfidence as they did with Clinton. They relish the underdog status because it will induce voters to show up. And the Republicans want to foster Trump’s image as a winner, so they’re not going to say anything else.
What really matters is who shows up, and what they do in the privacy of the polling booth.
And then There’s Trump
There is a lot of speculation about what (if anything) is going on in his head, but I don’t think losing the election is going to make that much difference to his life.
You see, Trump is an expert at losing. He’s been doing it all his life. He does stupid things, blames everyone else, and pays his way out of trouble. When bribes don’t work, he lawyers up and uses every legal loophole to stall all proceedings. Yes, it’s big news when the court brings down a hefty fine or reparation against him, but the media then move on, and we never find out how many of those plaintiffs ever got their money.
So, if he loses the election, he will spend the next few years staving off all the cases against him, paid for by the suckers who can’t admit that they’ve been conned.
What Does a Win Look Like?
To answer that question, you have to look into the twisted mind of the bully. A bully believes that everyone is against him, and that he has to act aggressively in order to survive. There are no morals or ethics involved.
For someone like that, to survive is to win. The icing on the cake is to want something else, and succeed at that. And Trump seeks attention above all.
No Such Think as Bad Publicity
Looked at it from a publicity point of view, whatever happens, he can’t lose:
What if he wins the election? Four more years in the public eye, forced every week to come up with a new stunt to top the last one,
What if he loses the election? The vultures are circling, and he’ll have a couple more years in the public eye as he stalls his way up to the Supreme Court, in which he has — at least for now — a majority. His chances of actual jail time are far in the future.
The Finish Line Is in Sight
Remember, for the power junkie, there is only one goal; fight until the end. Trump’s lifetime objective is to fight off the vultures until he dies or until he becomes mentally unable to stand trial. He is approaching 80 and in poor health.
The Rambling Speech: On Purpose?
Actors always have a weird relationship with their audiences. They love them, but they hate the fact that the mob could turn on them at any time. There can be little doubt that Trump despises the basket of deplorables that supports him.
There’s even a possibility that he is quite compos mentis, and his stream-of-consciousness ramblings are his version of ad-lib poetry, equivalent to a poet at a slam. Is he seeing how far he can push the rubes, and they’ll still love the show?
Insurrection?
Trump is a purist. He used that schtick in a previous show. He’ll come up with something else.
The Bottom Line
Everybody’s favourite dream — that he’ll just fade away and disappear — is doomed to failure. He makes good news fodder. We’re going to be seeing that obnoxious orange visage for a while yet.