If one were to follow the media (especially the leftist variety) lately, one might get the impression that about half the voters in US and Canada are completely brain dead. As I discovered when I researched my book, “Why Are People so Stupid?” they usually aren’t. Illogical perhaps. Stupid, no.
So, with a B. C. election coming up tomorrow, an American election in a few weeks, and a Canadian federal test looming, let’s take a look at what’s keeping the polls so even.
It’s All About Change
Or not. Ironic that the people so determined to vote for change are mostly conservatives, who, by nature, find change abhorrent. But that’s the theme: “Change above all.” Both the Canadian federal and B. C. provincial voting populace are in the same bind. The Federal Liberals and the provincial NDP got us through the pandemic and started us seriously on the long slog to fight climate change. These two situations cost public coffers billions of dollars, and are going to cost trillions more before it’s all done. And that money has to come out of the economy. So, we show our thanks by blaming the incumbent parties for inflation, cost of living, lack of housing, and the price of lattes.
Facing the Music
Tough times are here; they’re going to get worse, and many people can’t bring themselves to consider the personal effects that will ensue. It is much easier to find someone else to blame and punish them. As my book concludes, people who are angry and afraid focus on their feelings, not on fixing the problem that caused the pain.
In Canada’s case, the Federal Liberals were unlucky enough to choose a mediocre leader who wasn’t up to the job. The Provincial NDP were lucky to have a stellar leader, but he succumbed to medical problems, and they were forced to choose an able administrator without the charisma to ease his way through the present crisis.
The United States is in a similar bind, but orders of magnitude greater due to the divisive nature of their whole social system.
Likely Outcomes
All the pundits in both countries are predicting close races, and nobody’s contradicting them, because that situation makes it easier to persuade your supporters to vote. In the US, the Democrats are leading by a squeak, and there is hope yet that the female voters will say one thing in public and do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth. Or that disaffected Republicans will just not show up.
Federally, I have some hope. For the last three elections, Canadian voters have had the group intelligence to give the Liberals a minority government, which was all their leader deserved. Forced to cooperate with the federal NDP, they gave us some game-changing legislation in prescriptions and dental health. A new nail in the coffin of the “minority governments never get anything done” argument, and another reason to push for Proportional Representation, which functions like that all the time.
Now, the Liberals are trying to depose their leader, late in the game though it is. The best probable result we can hope for is a minority government for the Conservatives, which is what Canada deserves for voting without thinking. Statistically, these last from eighteen to twenty-four months, and then we’ll do it over again in (hopefully) a calmer atmosphere.
The Bottom Line
Tomorrow’s election in B. C. is not so uncertain. When the Conservatives finally presented their financial plan (6 days before the election) predicting a larger deficit than the present government planned, the NDP immediately jumped to a five-point lead. They already had an edge in the big urban ridings that swing the most seats. The Greens are likely to keep their two seats on Vancouver Island, and there are six Independents who might produce three or four other outside seats. I think many voters, when it comes down to the wire, will realize that a party with almost no experienced candidates isn’t quite ready to govern, and needs a few years in Opposition first.
That is, if they’re smart enough.