As a proponent of Proportional Representation, I am always looking for ways to make our messed-up election systems reflect the real opinion of voters. To do this, I try to look at the most accurate data I can find. For example, in US, people actually register their preference before they vote. Thus, we have a pretty good idea of how the vote should turn out:
Voter Identitification
If people do what they say they will, 33% will vote Democratic, 29% will vote Republican, and 34% will make their choice on the merits of the candidates and party platforms. However, 49% of Indies lean left, and 44% tend right. So, all things being equal, the vote will average out at Democrats 50%, Republicans 44%. But every election is different, so then we ask ourselves the key question:
What Will Skew It This Time?
And here we go from data into prediction. A big jump, but social media has messed up the polling industry to the point where anyone can compete and luck out. Here are some areas to watch, because they are trending.
Voter Turnout by Gender
It doesn’t matter what you register as, you have to actually show up at the polling booth to make your opinion count. Historically, more women than men have voted, and this difference has been growing. Data on voter turnout shows a 3% increase in the gap over the last 30 years.
Effect: Between the abortion issue and Trump’s general sexism, this doesn’t bode well for Republicans.
Voter Turnout by Education
The vast majority of voters have at least some college education, and in that group, Democrats outpace Republicans at a rate of 4 to 3. And the number of voters with college degrees has grown 12% in the last 30 years.
Effect: Trump’s continued romance with “uneducated people” could bite him in an appropriate spot.
Religion
64% of registered voters consider themselves religious. This number has dropped at least 15% in the last 10 years. Numbers of white, evangelical protestants have dropped 3%, other protestants 6% and Catholics 5%
Effect: now, about 80% of Republicans are religious, while only 50% of Democrats are. So, the decline of religion as a political factor will affect the Republicans proportionally more.
Voting Data by Race
People who actually voted for Trump in 2020 were 85% white, a group that makes up 72% of voters, although that demographic only constitutes 59% of the population.
Effect: This high rate of one demographic in the voters is a symptom of systemic undemocratic practices. Also, the electoral college and the Senate were set up to give disproportionate power to less populated (i.e. white, rural, and uneducated) states. Population predictions suggest USA is headed for two more decades of white superior numbers, during which little will change.
The Bottom Line
If you’re looking for a place to worry about the future of democracy, this analysis shows a sobering tendency. In America, all the factors that are affected by the actual choices of the voters lean towards a growing Democratic power in future elections. However, the final factor, which is regulated by the non-democratic facets of the American election process, could quite possibly be the deciding one this time, and could stall the development of the democratic process for decades in the future.
Hey, Maybe Trump is right. The American Election System really is screwed up!