I think there has been a great misconception in the news and social media as to what has been going on. Everyone has been judging Biden’s actions by the Trump standard. They have cast him as another typical narcissist, clinging to power for egotistical reasons.
This is not the Joe Biden that has been in the White House for 12 of the last 16 years. We’re talking about a wily old campaigner, making his moves at the right time and not before.
As I have mentioned before, Biden was playing the long game. He wasn’t burning any bridges in case he needed them later. Until the moment he bowed out, he had to play it as if he was going the whole route in case he ended up running. Now, he has thrown his political weight behind Kamala Harris. There are several scenarios that might play out at the Convention, but basically all the delegates who are Biden supporters will be free, at least in the moral sense, to switch their vote to her.
Variation on My Usual Theme
Of course, he could seal the deal by joining her as his running mate. Just sayin’.
A Lesson from Canadian History
Not that all is well in the land of NoD (As in No Democracy). A sobering statistic: three times in recent Canadian politics a ruling party has run through their political capital and ended up with a leader past the best-before date. In all three cases, these parties have chosen a new leader, usually about a year before the election. In all three cases, that leader lost.
So there are no guarantees. But that’s democracy.
And Then the Polls
Today, the New York Times quoted polls giving Trump a 48% chance at winning, with Kamala Harris “trailing” at only 46%. And these polls were taken before Biden stepped aside. It would be reasonable to expect, now that she has the power of the Democratic party behind her, perceptions will change.
However…
In the view of thoughtful commentators, the polling industry has experienced declining popularity for two reasons. First, people are beginning to realize that unless you know the exact question being asked and the method of choosing the sample (and several other key statistical factors) you can’t accept the results of the poll as “fact.” The data represents factual data, but what question those facts apply to is debatable. For example, the poll the NYT quotes might have asked “Who do you think is going to win?” Or they might have asked “Who will you vote for?”
Second, pollsters are discovering that they are shooting at a moving target. The effects of social media on population perception are constantly changing. Finding a representative sample of the population is increasingly difficult. For example, I used to respond to polls, if I was interested in the subject and felt that it was important to make my opinion known. Now, due to the aforesaid deterioration in the reputation of polls, I feel less inclined to participate.
The Bottom Line
If we accept the statistic that about one third of American voters are registered Republicans, one-third are Democrats, and the rest are Independents, and if we assume that the “Independents” want to think about who the best person would be for the job, I’d guess that many of them will have a more thoughtful take on the two candidates than the knee-jerk responses of the Committed.
The best thing the Americans can do right now is to follow their British counterparts and vote for a return to normalcy. The world will thank them.