I went back to my 2013 book “Why are People so Stupid?” and sure enough, there in Chapter 5, “Cognitive Disasters,” was the explanation for why Donald Trump is acting in such an irrational (note that I’m too polite to say “stupid”) way. He’s a problem gambler.
Let’s take a look at some of the psychological (and other) factors that lead me to this conclusion:
“Doubling Down”
This gambling expression means that you look at your cards and think you have a better chance of winning, so you double your bet. Being a good gambler is a process of doubling down on good hands and cutting your losses on poor hands. The trick is in interpreting the facts (your odds of winning) correctly, and not letting your emotions (your need to win) take over and make you throw good money after bad.
“Belief Preference”
This expression in psychology refers to the strange habit people have of continuing to believe something even after the facts show them that they are wrong. And the more they need to believe in whatever it is, the less the facts count (see “doubling down,” above).
“Insanity”
Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same action over and over again, expecting different results.
The Results in This Case
These three factors come together so often in one person that in common usage “doubling down” has come to mean taking a more risky chance when you’re already losing. Because problem gambling is a form of insanity. When a person who really, really needs to win sees himself losing, rationality goes out the window. Instead of cutting his losses, he doubles down, as if somehow proving his loyalty to his cause will change the result. He does this over and over again, digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole.
In Politics
Unfortunately for politicians, your belief in yourself is a great asset, unless you happen to be a problem gambler. In that case, the more you lose, the less you look at the facts.
We have seen this happen time after time when a poor politician begins to see himself losing his campaign. Logic goes out the window, and he starts to do the same things over and over again. Usually these are things that appeal to his core group of loyal voters, the things they all believe in strongly. He does them, his supporters cheer wildly and he feels better, in spite of the consequences to his chances of winning.
How Real Politicians Act
Logic tells the politician that his core voters are going to vote for him anyway, and he should be finding different approaches to bring in other voters. But the losing publicity hound is past the point of reason, and just keeps doing what feels right to him.
Historically Speaking
It happened in the last federal election in Canada. Incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper started the race at about 33% the polls. So what did he do? He aimed his campaign at the 33% of the voters who always voted for him. And that’s what he ended up with on Election Day. Needless to say, he is no longer Prime Minister.
The American Presidential Race
As Donald Trump’s popularity falls he just keeps acting more and more like his loyal supporters want him to, over and over again, no matter how badly he is doing in the polls. Other Republicans keep telling him what he has to do to win more voters over, but he just goes back to acting like himself again. Which is of great benefit to his opponents, and great entertainment for the media.
Unfortunately for Trump, His loyal supporters are less than 20% of American voters. By repeating his insane actions, he is driving away all the other Republicans who might have voted for him out of loyalty to their party and fear of the Democrats.
And I see the same phenomenon on the Trump-supporting websites. As Trump loses more in the polls, the supporters he has left are creating more and more fantastic charges and invective against Clinton, as if that can change the results of the election. These are worried people who need a hero. Instead they got a fool, but they have created an image of him that fits their need, and that’s who they’re supporting.
The fear I hear from many commentators is that no one knows where this irrationality will take him or his supporters in the next month. I think that the rational people are worrying less about him winning the election, and are becoming more concerned that he could lose it in more ways than one.