Created with the help of Gemini AI
The war in Ukraine may be a drone war at the moment, and the locals may be winning, but like all wars, this one is a matter of people vs people, and economy vs economy.
People vs People
In the long haul, this war comes down to people vs people. Like Hitler, Netanyahu, and the Allies in WWII, Putin’s strategy is to attack the people of the Ukraine and try to make life so miserable that they quit. As the London Blitz demonstrated, even a democratic population will endure incredible hardship if they see no other way out. Like the bombing of Germany and Gaza showed, destroying the cities doesn’t work if the leadership doesn’t care about the welfare of the population.
When a war has gone on this long, and the leaders have doubled down this hard, the only factor that can end the war is a political move within one of the countries that ousts the leaders who are managing the war. Basically, the people get so tired of the war they say, “Enough.”
Putin is never going to negotiate for peace, and the war’s effect on the Russian people is very small in the major flow of their lives. Russia is running the war on the strength of the dictator.
Zelinski is a democratic leader, but he is ruling under martial law and his back is to the wall. He would like to negotiate out of the situation, but he knows Putin will not negotiate in good faith, so he must keep fighting. The Ukrainian people are waging the war on the strength of their loyalty. This is a powerful motivator.
Economy vs Economy
However, setting aside the spirit and abilities of the people, wars cost money, and this is where the stark realities show through.
| Ukraine | Russia | |
| Annual GDP | USD 200 million | USD 2 billion |
| Debt as % of GDP | 90% | 15% |
| Deficit as % of GDP | 17% | 2% |
| Defense Expenditure % budget | 54% | 19% |
Notable is the annual GDP line, which shows Russia has ten times the resources on a yearly basis.
The “Deficit as % of GDP” line shows how over-extended the Ukrainians are. As a comparison, Canada has about the same percentage as Russia in this field, and we are always worried about it.
The Bottom Lines
The only military reason Putin has been able to continue this war is that he has the ultimate final threat: nuclear weapons. With a sympathetic American administration, there is little chance that the rest of the world can call his bluff. Because it isn’t a bluff. As history has demonstrated right up to the present day, when you’re dealing with an egotist who doesn’t care about anything but his own power, negotiation is always an iffy proposition. We can only hope that the old “mutual fear of destruction” will continue to function.
The financial bottom line is pretty stark for Ukraine. Without a whole lot of financial aid from the rest of us, they simply cannot hold out.
The political bottom line is that democracies are always waiting for the next election to straighten things out. The kicker for this November’s US mid-terms is that any weakening of the present president will actually strengthen the nation’s ability to stand up to the dictators.
As the old curse goes, “May you live in interesting times.”