Portraits courtesy of Wikipedia. Background by AI.
The Liberals have had their strategy for the next election simplified for them; whatever they do, they’re going to lose. It’s only a matter of how badly. Which leaves them with a pared-down decision field.
Only Two Elements to Consider:
First, the incredible power of the “change at any cost” stupidity. Second, the reluctance of many voters to accept an outsider. These two factors pull to different voters in opposite directions, making it very difficult to find a middle ground that will keep both groups happy.
The New Broom
If they’re more worried about the desire for change, they go with Mark Carney, ignoring historical names like Michael Ignatieff and Kim Campbell, both last-minute leaders who failed at the first hurdle. Mark’s stint at Bank of Canada was under the Conservative leadership of Stephen Harper, so he bears no stain of more recent Liberal inflation-killing measures. The “businessman” appeal to rightist voters is questionable but possible.
Old Hand
If they’re looking for more experience, they go with Chrystia Freeland. Her recent mini tantrum doesn’t move her too far from her former position at the right hand of Trudeau, but her experience with Trumpist trade tricks is a big plus. This might be a good time to try for a woman leader; all the knee-jerk chauvinists are already alienated. And face it, the Liberals aren’t aiming to win this election, just to avoid annihilation.
The Statistical Oracle Warns Us…
The flip side of the First-Past-the-Post system is that, while it is normal that a party with just over 35% of the popular vote will win a majority, it is also possible for a party with 30% of the vote to get shut out completely. In 1984, the Liberals had 28% of the popular vote and only got 14% of the seats. In 2011, two party leaders, Gilles Duceppe and Michael Ignatieff, lost their personal ridings as well. There is a good possibility that Justin Trudeau will learn to rue the day he broke his promise on Proportional Representation.
Strategic Voting
So once again I’m placing my vote for a larger cause. Often, I’m voting against the Liberals just to keep their egos in line. This time I’m considering the disaster it’s going to be when Pierre Poilievre gets in.
The Bottom Line
Canada’s only hope for stability is if a lot of voters look outside our pocketbooks and our borders and give us at least a strong Opposition. Whether we like it or not, the elephant beside us has a very bad cold, and it’s sneezing in our direction.