Albertans Aren’t Angry

Part 1 of a two-part series, “Tribalism in Canadian Politics”

I don’t want to pick on you Albertans, but I know I have an audience in your province, and I think you are at what we call a “teachable moment,” or will get to one soon. Some advice from a sympathetic outsider just might gain some traction. It’s very hard to tell your friends that they’re being scammed, taken advantage of. That someone is using their pain to his own advantage. If their beliefs and their livelihoods are tied up in the scam, they are quite likely to find that more valuable than your friendship. But here goes.

The old saying, “Follow the Money,” isn’t exactly applicable, although in the end it always comes down to money. At the moment, shall we generalize and say, “Who benefits from your anger?”

“Albertans Are Angry.”

Okay, nobody in Alberta won a whole lot in the last election. The members of all the other political parties that got shut out didn’t win a thing. They’re pretty choked. The average Conservative didn’t win the whole election. So let’s be a bit more accurate and say that few people in Alberta are happy. But that’s not the same thing as being angry.

Now for the people who did win in the election: the Conservative Party. If it hadn’t been for the Alberta vote, with some help from the Central Prairies, the Conservatives would have been wiped off the map. Keep that in mind.

Who Wins by Being Angry?

Well, look at our mixed-up neighbours to the south. A party with supporters who are in economic and social trouble can create a bogeyman to point at and say, “That’s who is causing your problems.”

Turn your supporters’ concern over things they can do nothing about into anger at someone else and you can keep their support, no matter how self-serving your intentions are. Plenty of examples in the international politics of the 20^thcentury. Remember, when any tribe breaks in two, the biggest winner is the guy that gets to be leader of the new half.

What Part of “I’m Building the Pipeline” Don’t You Understand?

I know Albertans don’t want to hear nice things about Trudeau right now, but listen to this one. He has actually pulled off an incredible coup in this election. He has managed to tread a very thin line between keeping the environmental support of the majority of Canadians while at the same time never giving up on his intention to build Albertans the pipeline they need. That’s some accomplishment, and Alberta benefits the most. If Trudeau had taken a hard line on climate change, he might have scraped up enough votes for a majority, without making a bit of difference to the Alberta vote. But he didn’t. Keep that in mind.

The Future

You can expect the Liberals to team with the NDP to create all sorts of social and environmental legislation. I know many Albertans aren’t happy with that, but it won’t do you a whole lot of damage. At the same time, they will ask the Conservatives to support them on the pipeline issue. Which is to the advantage of the whole country (especially Alberta) but will make Scheer’s posturing look pretty stupid.

Because…

The leaders of both provincial and federal Conservative parties don’t want Albertans to feel like they can get along with the ROC. Think about that term. It used to apply only to Quebec and its relationship with the ROC. Now the ROC means “everybody that isn’t in the oil business.”

And the one person that really doesn’t want any rapprochement is Andrew Scheer. His so-called congratulation speech on election night made that very clear. Usually, the losing party leader takes the moral high ground. He shows good sportsmanship and statesmanship and makes noises about the people being always right, and the democratic process and that sort of stuff. He’s thinking about the next election. He doesn’t make “We’re coming to get you” threats like a school-ground bully. Scheer is thinking about keeping his job.

Are Albertans Really Angry?

Well, despite the political leaders quoted in the media over and over for the last two weeks who were very careful to tell everybody, and especially Albertans, how angry the people were, I wonder. CBC National News went to a truck stop between Edmonton and Calgary and interviewed the first five Albertans who stepped out the door. Not one of them said he or she was angry. Sure, disappointed, worried, that sort of understandable emotion. But not angry. It’s a small sample, but interesting.

Are You Angry?

So take time to reflect, now that all the hype is over. The best arguments you have on the climate change topic:

1. Climate change is happening,
2. We have to do something about it,
3. We have to transition gradually. Just dropping everything immediately would be irresponsible, economically suicidal, and just plain stupid.

And it’s unfortunate, but if you can’t agree with those statements, then you’re probably a wingnut on one side of the question or the other who loves being angry, and I doubt if you bothered to read this far, so I’m not really talking to you.

For the Reasonable People:

The federal government is willing to spend a lot of its political capital in the rest of Canada to get you your pipeline to ease the transition. They’re going to use the profits to invest in clean technology. Alberta has the same opportunity as any province to access that money, which would do a lot to diversify your economy.

The Bottom Line

I’d say your best bet is to shrug your shoulders, knuckle down and go for it, in cooperation with the rest of us. That’s what we’ve always done in the past, and it got you to where you are today; despite what your politicians keep telling you, you’re at the top of the heap, with every chance to stay there.